Thursday, February 4, 2016

Scientific models and experiments

[ ] Scientific models and experiments.
[ ] How do we use scientific method in agile?
[ ] What is the scientific method? A structured way to test and learn.
[ ] Observation, inference, hypothesis, experiment,  Modification of hypothesis, replication.
[ ] Document your methods.
[ ] Carl Popper. Falsification. How do we know when we're wrong.
[ ] Falsification: flies come from meat.
[ ] Type 1 and type two errors. Type 1 is when false positive. Type 2 is false negative.
[ ] If we're trying to cure cancer, we believe we got it right but it was the placebo effect. Type 1.
[ ] Fail fast. Experiment.
[ ] Emotional state of developers effects experiment results.
[ ] Organizational communication. Predictive vs prescriptive. Prescriptive means how the world should be in a perfect world.
[ ] People get a gut feeling that the code sucks long before velocity drops.
[ ] Null hypothesis check. Stop doing standups on the hypothesis that nothing will change.
[ ] Unwillingness to risk loss.
[ ] Most experiments try to eliminate a pain. Fx I don't have what I need. Customer is screaming.
[ ] Failures are as valuable as success.
[ ] Hawthorne effect.
[ ] 43 fallacies, cognitive biases and others. (Wikipedia)
[ ] Causation vs correlation.
[ ] Irrational economics.
[ ] We're wired to recognize patterns.
[ ] Long term memory ...
[ ] Satir input model. Good models help
[ ] Being wrong by Katherine Schultz.
[ ] On being certain. By ?
[ ] Thinking Fast and slow by Kaneman.
[ ] Why there are so many signs with Chinese characters in the U.S. (it was a picnic table)
[ ] Dunning-Krueger effect. Newspaper article about bank robber who put lemon juice on and thought he was invisible. Actual skill vs perceived skill.
[ ] Scientific method can help avoid DK Effect.
[ ] We all want to be data driven.
[ ] We now have the ability to analyze a lot of data.
[ ] The signal and the noise by Nate Silver.
[ ] What are the things you need in order to create an environment where experiments can be done.
[ ] Remove constraints.

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